Lithuania’s Seimas says U.S. wavering on support for Ukraine requires Europe to strengthen its defense

A possible reduction in U.S. support for Ukraine could force the European Union to significantly increase defense spending, strengthen its own military capabilities, and move to a state of immediate military readiness. Further escalation of Russian aggression or the emergence of new security threats could lead to a sharp rise in defense spending. By standing up to Russia, Ukraine is defending not only its own independence but also the security of the entire Western world, weakening Russia’s capabilities and giving Europe time to strengthen its defenses.

This was stated in a written interview with the Guildhall news agency by Karolis Neimantas, a member of the Seimas of Lithuania, chair of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania and the World Lithuanian Community Commission, and a member of the committees on foreign affairs and European affairs.

— According to the Financial Times, Washington may suspend the PURL mechanism, which allows American weapons to be purchased for Ukraine, unless Kyiv stops striking Russian oil refineries. How do you assess this U.S. policy, and what threats does it pose to Europe’s security?

— Although the United States remains Europe’s main security partner, Ukraine is now defending not only itself but also Europe, paying for that defense with the blood of its own citizens.

Such an ultimatum from the United States to Ukraine is unacceptable and unjustifiable. Ukraine is not launching an unprovoked attack on an aggressor—it is defending itself and, in doing so, defending the entire Western world. Ukraine contributes to these efforts both directly and indirectly, weakening Russia and buying precious time for the entire Western world, including the United States itself.

First and foremost, it must be acknowledged that Russia systematically attacks Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including its energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s response is strategic and defensive in nature and therefore should not be subject to Western sanctions. Making concessions to Russia on energy supplies under the pretext of a global oil crisis is not a solution to either the Russian-Ukrainian war or the global energy crisis.

What is most concerning is that such U.S. decisions could force the European Union to increase its defense investment even further—both to strengthen its own defense capabilities and to provide additional support to Ukraine. If conflicts escalate or new security threats emerge, this investment could rise sharply and become unavoidable.

This situation would also have negative consequences for the U.S. economy. In the short term, Europe may be forced to move to a state of immediate military readiness, devoting a significant share of its resources and capabilities to this goal. This would also adversely affect U.S. economic interests. Therefore, such a scenario is not in the United States’ own interests.

— If U.S. support is withdrawn and Ukraine is forced to make concessions that violate its sovereignty, will European countries be able to resist Russian aggression without Ukraine as an independent military partner, especially given the further reduction in U.S. commitments?

— The European Union’s gross domestic product is approximately eight times larger than Russia’s. It is also important to remember that this is not only about the European Union, but also about NATO—an alliance that includes other countries around the world, including the United States. Security commitments and responsibilities must be assessed in the context of the Alliance as a whole.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, NATO’s total defense spending has increased by more than 20%, while the European Union’s contribution has risen by more than 60%. In addition, NATO has welcomed two new allies—Sweden and Finland—further strengthening the Alliance.

Even if the U.S. contribution declines, Europe and NATO have significant economic, industrial, and military capabilities that will enable them to resist Russian aggression and, if necessary, prevent it from spreading further. Nevertheless, NATO’s ability to provide collective defense also depends on cooperation among allies and their fulfillment of their commitments.

Europe and Lithuania trust the United States. However, decisions that negatively affect Ukraine may also be driven by U.S. domestic political and economic priorities. Neither the European Union nor NATO can directly regulate the sovereign domestic decisions of the United States, which seeks to achieve the best possible outcomes for its own country.

Although such decisions are sensitive and may have direct or indirect consequences for the war between Russia and Ukraine, the United States, as a sovereign state, has the right to make its own decisions on national policy, provided they do not conflict with the country’s international obligations.

This does not change the fact that the decisions and actions of individual allies have consequences for European and transatlantic security as a whole.

Thank you for your thoughtful answers and for taking the time to speak with us!

Guildhall news agency, exclusively.